The Central Bank of Iceland will publish its quarterly
Peningamál (in Icelandic) on its website one month later than hitherto,
i.e. in March, June, September and December. These months are more convenient
for organising tasks connected with publication and are considered generally
more suitable for presenting the Bank's forecasts and analyses than the previous
publication dates. The English version (Monetary Bulletin) will as
before be posted on the website as soon as the translations of individual
articles are available.
In consultation with the Office of the Prime
Minister, the Central Bank has also decided to publish comprehensive
macroeconomic and inflation forecasts twice a year instead of on a quarterly
basis. Forecasts will be published in the June and December issues of
Peningamál (Monetary Bulletin). Forecasts will be published more frequently if the Bank sees
grounds for doing so, either in the form of updates or new comprehensive
forecasts. Issues of Peningamál (Monetary Bulletin) which do not include macroeconomic and inflation forecasts will
nonetheless present analyses of economic and monetary developments and make an
assessment of changes from previous forecasts. The next issue of
Peningamál, to be published in March, will contain an update to the
Bank's forecast from November.
Given the enormous amount of work
involved in its production, the benefits of publishing a comprehensive
macroeconomic and inflation forecast on a quarterly basis instead of twice year
are not considered worth the effort. Another consideration is that much better
macroeconomic balance now prevails compared with immediately after the 2½%
inflation target for monetary policy was set in March 2001. It is hoped that
inflation will remain less volatile, reducing the need for such frequent
forecasting. Many other central banks with comparable inflation-targeting
frameworks publish regular inflation forecasts two or three times a
year.
Studies of financial stability will be included in the March and
September issues of Peningamál (Monetary Bulletin), i.e. those
which do not contain comprehensive macroeconomic and inflation
forecasts.
Accordingly, the following publication dates have been
set for the Icelandic editions of Monetary Bulletin in 2004: March 17,
June 1,September 17 and December 2. As before, an English translation of the
introduction will be published on the Bank's website www.sedlabanki.is at the same time and other
chapters as soon as the translation is available.
For further information
contact Birgir Ísleifur Gunnarsson, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the
Central Bank of Iceland, and Már Guðmundsson, Chief Economist, tel. (+354)
569-9600.
No. 3/2004
January 19, 2004