I Inflation outlook and monetary policy

II External conditions and exports

III Financial conditions

IV Domestic demand and output

Box IV-1 Why did Iceland’s potential output contract in the wake of the financial crisis?

V Public sector finances

VI Labour market and wage developments

Box VI-1 The flexibility of the Icelandic labour market and migration flows

Box VI-2 Is the increase of equilibrium unemployment reversing?

VII External balance

VIII Price developments and inflation outlook

Appendix 1 Baseline macroeconomic and inflation forecast 2011/4

Appendix 2 The Central Bank of Iceland forecasting record

Tables appendix

Charts appendix