Survey of market expectations
The Central Bank of Iceland conducted a survey of market agents’ expectations over the period from 12-14 August 2024. A total of 36 agents in the bond market, including banks, pension funds, mutual and investment funds, securities brokers, licensed asset management firms, and insurance firms were invited to participate. Responses were received from 25 market participants, giving a response ratio of 69%.
Highlights
The survey findings indicate that market agents expect inflation to average 6.2% in Q3/2024. This is a higher inflation rate than they expected at the time of the April survey, but respondents expect inflation to continue falling in the quarters ahead, as they did before. They expect inflation to measure 4.3% in one year’s time, as compared with 4.6% in the previous survey, whereas their two- and five-year expectations were unchanged between surveys, at 4% and 3.8%, respectively. Long-term inflation expectations rose marginally, however, and market agents now expect inflation to average 3.6% in the next ten years, as opposed to 3.5% in the previous survey. The survey indicates that respondents expect the exchange rate of the króna to remain broadly unchanged in the coming term, with the EURISK exchange rate measuring 151 one year from now.
According to the median response in this survey, market agents expect the Central Bank’s key rate to be unchanged at 9.25% in Q3/2024 and then begin to fall in Q4. They expect it to be 7.75% in one year and 6.25% in two years. This is marginally higher than in the previous survey.
The share of respondents who considered the monetary stance too tight declined between surveys, from 62% in April to 52% in the August survey. On the other hand, the share who considered the monetary stance appropriate rose from 34% in the April survey to 40% in this one, and the share who considered it too loose rose from 3% in April to 8% in this survey.
By most measures, the range of responses on inflation expectations widened slightly between surveys, whereas the range of responses on interest rate expectations narrowed.
See here data on market expectations: Survey of market expectations, Q3/2024.
A special site for information on surveys of market expectations is here: Survey of market expectations.